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You are here: BAILII >> Databases >> England and Wales High Court (Chancery Division) Decisions >> Atos IT Services UK Ltd v Atos Pension Schemes Ltd [2020] EWHC 145 (Ch) (27 January 2020) URL: http://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/Ch/2020/145.html Cite as: [2020] Pens LR 17, [2020] EWHC 145 (Ch) |
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BUSINESS AND PROPERTY COURTS OF ENGLAND AND WALES
BUSINESS LIST (ChD)
PENSIONS
In the matter of the Atos UK 2011 Pension Scheme
Fetter Lane, London, EC4A 1NL |
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B e f o r e :
____________________
Atos IT Services UK Limited |
Claimant |
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- and - |
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Atos Pension Schemes Limited |
Defendant |
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(instructed by Baker & McKenzie LLP) for the Claimant
Mr Nicolas Stallworthy QC and Mr Edward Sawyer (instructed by CMS Cameron McKenna Nabarro Olswang LLP) for the Defendant
Hearing dates: 23 and 24 January 2020
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Crown Copyright ©
MR JUSTICE NUGEE:
Introduction
"No Judge objects more than I do to referring to authorities merely for the purpose of ascertaining the construction of a document. That is to say, I think it is the duty of a Judge to ascertain the construction of the instrument before him and not to refer to the construction put by another Judge upon an instrument perhaps similar but not the same."
Mr Spink's written submissions included a selection of indexation provisions found in the reported cases and in other Atos schemes. Such provisions often have a family resemblance consisting of a reference to the index to be used followed by circumstances in which some other index can be substituted (what can be called a trigger provision), but the detailed drafting shows a wide variety, and I entirely accept that this case has to be determined on the wording of the provision in question and not by comparing other cases in which other words have been construed. I was therefore, quite rightly, not taken to those other cases, although some of them are very familiar.
"Retail Prices Index means the general index of retail prices (all items) published by the Office for National Statistics, or, where that index is not published, any substituted index published by that Office (or its successor) as the Principal Employer and the Trustees may agree. Where the retail prices index ceases to exist, the Principal Employer and the Trustees may agree any substituted index published by that Office (or its successor)."
It is one of a number of definitions found in that document.
(1) What did "the general index of Retail Prices (all items) published by the Office for National Statistics" mean on 30 June 2011 when the Interim Deed was executed?
The answer is RPI.
That I can say with complete confidence because it is common ground. In any event, it is obviously the right answer, indeed to my mind the only possible answer.
(2) Do those words mean anything different today or at any time between 30 June 2011 and today?
My answer is No.
If they meant, as it is common ground that they did, RPI in 2011 they still mean RPI. This is because the purpose of a definition is to identify the relevant index that the draftsman or draftswoman meant by using the defined expression. Once identified as RPI that is what the words mean. They do not change their meaning subsequently.
(3) Is RPI still "published"?
Again, the answer to this seems to me entirely straightforward and is Yes.
RPI is still published by the United Kingdom Statistics Authority ("the UKSA"). RPI is still published by the UKSA because the UKSA is under a statutory obligation in s. 21(1) of the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 ("SRSA 2007") to do precisely that.
"21 Retail prices index
(1) The Board must under section 20-
(a) compile and maintain the retail prices index, and
(b) publish it every month."
(The UKSA in fact operates through the Office of National Statistics ("ONS") which is an executive agency of the UKSA and it is not generally necessary to distinguish between them; I will therefore in what follows refer to the UKSA as including the ONS where appropriate.) RPI is in fact the only index which the UKSA is under a statutory obligation to publish. Unsurprisingly, they comply with this obligation, and in practice they put the RPI figure on their website (or ONS's website) every month. The evidence in this case makes it perfectly clear that the UKSA would prefer not to have to publish RPI because they regard it as flawed and last year (2019) they wrote to two successive Chancellors of the Exchequer, Mr Philip Hammond and Mr Sajid Javid, inviting them to consider repealing s. 21. Mr Hammond did not in the event have the opportunity to reply before he was replaced by Mr Javid. Mr Javid replied that he had no current intention of doing so. So I accept that the UKSA does not want to have to compile, maintain and publish RPI, but as at today, and for the foreseeable future, that is something they are obliged by primary legislation to do, and hence something they do, and will continue to do. In those circumstances the suggestion that the trigger condition in the Definition, namely "where that index is not published", has been met is to my mind a wholly impossible view to sustain.
"References in the Income Tax Acts to the retail prices index are references to the general index of retail prices (for all items) published by the Office for National Statistics; and if that index is not published for a month which is relevant for the purposes of any provision of those Acts that provision shall be construed as referring to any substituted index or index figures published by that Office."
s. 833 ICTA 1988 remained in force until 6 April 2007 when it was replaced as part of the Tax Law rewrite by the Income Tax Act 2007 ("ITA 2007"), s. 989 of which contained definitions, including an almost identical definition of retail prices index as follows:
"retail prices index means–
(a) the general index of retail prices (for all items) published by the Office for National Statistics, or
(b) if that index is not published for a relevant month, any substituted index or index figures published by that Office."
"the general index of retail prices (for all items) [or in the case of the Definition "(all items)"] published by the Office for National Statistics".
In each case the trigger provision is:
"if [or in the case of the Definition "where"] that index is not published"
(although the tax definitions carry on by referring to publication for a relevant month). In each case there is then a reference to:
"any substituted index [and in the case of the tax definitions "or index figures"] published by that Office."
"A declaration as to whether on the true construction of the 2011 TDR, and in the events that have happened, in the definition of Retail Prices Index in Schedule 1 to the draft Siemens Rules:
a. the expression "the general index of retail prices (all items) published by the Office for National Statistics":
(i) means RPI; or
(ii) means, or meant until its discontinuance in March 2017 RPIJ; or
(iii) means CPI; or
(iv) means CPIH."
My answer is (i): it means RPI.
"If 6.1(a) [ie Question 1] is answered in the sense "(i)" - ie RPI - the expression "or where that index is not published" means:
(i) "where that index (although it has not ceased to exist) is not published in any given month or at any time required for its use under the 2011 TDR"; or
(ii) "where that index is not published for any purpose"; or
(iii) "where that index is not published for the purpose it was at the time the Scheme was established"; or
(iv) "where that index is not published for the purpose it was at the time the index was first published"; or
(v) "where that index is not published as an Official Statistic by the ONS"; or
(vi) "where that index is not published with National Statistics status"; or
(vii) "where that index is not published as an appropriate or alternatively as a preferred or alternatively as the lead measure of consumer price inflation by the ONS"; or
(viii) "where that index is not published as an appropriate or alternatively as a preferred or alternatively as the lead measure of consumer price inflation for pension indexation purposes by the ONS"; or
(ix) "where that index is not published by the ONS as an appropriate or alternatively as a preferred or alternatively as the lead measure of inflation used for uprating compensation and benefits";"
Facts
"Until the execution of the Definitive Deed the Trustees must administer the scheme in accordance with ...
4.3.2 the provisions of this deed and the Appendices and any subsequent amendments made thereto."
"Subject to the conditions and modifications set out in paragraphs 3.3 to 3.11 below, in relation to each Member, his contributions payable to the Scheme, benefits payable to or in respect of him from the Scheme and the terms and conditions applicable to his membership of the Scheme shall (with the necessary alterations to points of detail) be the same as those applicable under the SBS Terms immediately prior to the Commencement Date (referred to in this paragraph 3 as the "Relevant Terms")."
"SBS Terms" is a defined term, being defined in paragraph 1 of the Appendix as follows:
" "SBS Terms" means, in respect of a Former DB Member his contributions payable to the SBS, benefits payable to or in respect of him from the SBS and the terms and conditions applicable to his membership of the SBS immediately prior to the Commencement Date as set out in the Saver Plan Plus Section or the Tower Plan Section, as applicable, and shall, where applicable include:
[and then various things are set out]
and for the purpose of interpretation of the SBS Terms the applicable definitions contained in schedule 1 of the SBS Rules shall apply."
"SBS Rules" was itself defined in the same paragraph as follows:
" "SBS Rules" means the definitive trust deed and rules governing the SBS dated 18 August 2008 (the "2008 SBS Deed") as amended by deeds of amendment dated 21 December 2009 and 29 June 2010 and also including further changes contained within a draft definitive trust deed and rules (the "Draft 2011 SBS Deed"), a copy of which is attached to the Interim Deed but does not itself form part of the Interim Deed, and which is intended to replace the 2008 SBS Deed in order to consolidate the amendments made by the aforementioned deeds of amendment and to make certain other amendments to the 2008 Deed (and, for the avoidance of doubt, the SBS Rules shall not include any other amendments made to either the 2008 Deed or to the draft 2011 SBS Deed on or after the Commencement Date."
"such part of the pension which relates to Pensionable Service prior to 6 April 2006 shall be increased by the percentage increase in the Retail Prices Index during the previous 12 months or, if less, by 5%; and ..."
and then there are some more provisions, but paragraph 9.1.3 states:
"The increases payable under this Rule shall take effect on 1 April each year and shall be calculated as at each 1 April by reference to the number of completed months since the date when the pension became payable, or, if later, from the date of the last calculation. For the purposes of this Rule, the Trustees shall use the Retail Prices Index published for the 12 month period ending on the preceding 31 December (normally published in the preceding January). If the Retail Prices Index is not published in respect of the relevant period (or is published too late to be used for the purposes of this Rule the Trustees may substitute such percentage as they consider to be a reasonably likely figure on the basis of information available to them, such figure to be agreed with the Principal Employer."
That is an example of what I referred to earlier as what appears to be a temporary fix for a temporary problem. Very similar provisions are applicable under some of the other Plans set out in other schedules.
"11.1. Increases in current pensions
Any pension ... shall be increased by:-
(a) the proportion by which the Government's Index of retail prices figure (published in the preceding January) has been increased during the previous 12 months, or if it is less,
(b) 5% a year compound with yearly rests on the anniversary of the Member's retirement or death (as appropriate)."
There was no definition of Retail Prices Index as such but there is no doubt that RPI was what was meant. CPI was not introduced until 1997, and no one could have thought that the reference to "the Government's Index of retail prices figure" in 1990 referred to anything except RPI, which had been in existence in one form or another since 1947, and established as the Retail Prices Index in 1956. It was by 1990 undoubtedly the primary measure of price inflation in the UK. There may have been sub-indices or derivative indices derived from it by 1990, but even if there were (something the evidence in this case leaves rather unclear), only RPI could properly be described as "the Government's Index of retail prices figure". The contrary was not suggested.
"Retail Prices Index means the general index of retail prices (all items) published by the Office for National Statistics, or, where that index is not published, any substituted index published by that Office (or its successor) as the Principal Employer and the Trustees may agree."
"Retail Prices Index means the general index of retail prices (all items) published by the Office for National Statistics for the 12 month period ending on the preceding 31 December (normally published in the preceding January), or in the case of the Electric Plan the general index of retail prices (all items) published by the Office for National Statistics for the 12 month period ending on the preceding 30 September, or such other index as the Principal Employer and the Trustees may agree. If the Retail Prices Index is not published in respect of the relevant period (or is published too late to be used for the purposes of this Rule) the Trustees may substitute such percentage as they consider to be a reasonably likely figure on the basis of information available to them, such figure to be agreed with the Principal Employer. Where the retail prices index ceases to exist, the Principal Employer and the Trustees may agree any substituted index published by that Office (or its successor)."
It may be noted that the Deed of Amendment dated 9 June 2011 was not one of the deeds referred to in the definition of the SBS Rules in paragraph 1 of Appendix 1 to the Draft 2011 SBS Deed.
"Retail Prices Index means the general index of retail prices (all items) published by the Office for National Statistics or, where that index is not published, any substituted index published by that Office (or its successor) as the Principal Employer and the Trustees may agree. Where the Retail Prices Index ceases to exist, the Principal Employer and the Trustees may agree any substituted index published by that Office (or its successor)."
That is, as already explained, the Definition that I have to construe. At the same time the schedules were amended to deal with the temporary non-availability of the index in the form of which I have read an example in paragraph 9.1.3 of schedule 3.
Experts
(1) First (which was agreed), the legal obligation in s. 21 SRSA 2007 to produce RPI was a new obligation which did not exist prior to the Act.
(2) Second (again agreed), the ONS now considers that RPI is a flawed measure of inflation and strongly discourages its use, regardless of the purpose for which it is to be used.
(3) Thirdly (not entirely agreed), RPI is not fit for the purpose of being a reliable and accurate general measure of inflation. That was Dr Robinson's view. Ms Leyland's position on that was to say that despite the ONS discouraging use of RPI without limiting its discouragement to particular users of RPI, in her opinion the ONS still considers the RPI to be fit for purpose for use in existing contracts.
(4) Fourthly (agreed), RPI overcompensates pensioners in comparison to actual inflation experienced by pensioners and this overestimation of inflation is due at least in part to the formula effect, ie the use of different underlying formulae in RPI and CPI, which has been exacerbated by the 2010 clothing changes. Mr Spink explained that the way in which he had put that proposition accommodated the fact that Ms Leyland in part of her expert evidence says that not only does RPI over-compensate, but to some extent CPI under-compensates, but she accepts that the over-compensation on the part of RPI is greater than the under-compensation on the part of CPI.
(5) Fifthly (agreed), a "general index" is the main or primary index in each family as distinct from sub-indices or derivatives of the general index.
(6) Sixthly (agreed), RPIJ was an improved variant of RPI.
(7) Seventhly (agreed), the main reason why the ONS or UKSA continues to produce and promulgate RPI in its current unreformed and flawed form and does not either discontinue it or reform it to make it (effectively) into the CPIH, is that it is required to do so by s. 21 SRSA 2007.
(8) Eighthly and last (agreed), there are no current plans to fix what the ONS sees as flaws in RPI before at least 2025, and the fix which may be permitted after 2025 is wholesale replacement of the methodology of RPI with that of CPIH.
"I strongly disagree that RPIJ became "the official version of the RPI" in 2013. RPIJ was always described as "an improved variant" of the RPI by the ONS. It was always clear from the January 2013 announcement following the 2012 consultation that RPI would be continued to serve users' needs."
Mr Spink explained that what Dr Robinson meant was just shorthand for the sequence of events in 2013, namely that in March 2013 RPI lost its status as a National Statistic, and then in November 2013 RPIJ obtained National Statistics status. I will therefore simply say that while I accept entirely the underlying facts I do not accept Dr Robinson's characterisation of RPIJ as "the official version" of RPI. The language used by the UKSA to refer to RPIJ was, as the experts agree, as "an improved variant" of RPI. It does not to my mind matter but my reading of the history is that RPIJ, which uses Jevons instead of Carli in the construction of the elementary aggregates but is otherwise identical to RPI, was initially developed by the UKSA in the hope that it might in due course come to displace RPI, being based on the same underlying data but calculated in a less flawed way. But it did not in fact gain any widespread acceptance and the UKSA downgraded its ambitions for it to being an index that quantified the formula effect. In the event, a review by Mr Paul Johnson, the Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, ("the Johnson Review"), concluded that the use of Carli instead of Jevons was not the only flaw that RPI suffered from, and that RPIJ suffered from those other flaws as well, and in due course RPIJ was discontinued.
The demise of RPI
"(2) Before making any change to the coverage or the basic calculation of the retail prices index the Board must consult the Bank of England as to the whether the change constitutes a fundamental change in the index which would be materially detrimental to the interests of the holders of relevant index-linked gilt-edged securities.
(3) If the Bank of England considers that the change constitutes a fundamental change which would be materially detrimental to the interests of the holders of relevant index-linked gilt-edged securities, the Board may not make the change without the consent of the Chancellor of the Exchequer."
s. 21(4) then contains a definition of "index-linked gilt-edged securities" as meaning:
"securities issued under section 12 of the National Loans Act 1968 the amount of the payments under which is determined wholly or partly by reference to the retail prices index"
a definition of "relevant index-linked gilt edged securities" as meaning:
"index linked gilt edged securities issued before the commencement of this section subject to a prospectus containing provision relating to early redemption in the event of a change to the retail prices index"
and a definition of "retail prices index" as meaning:
"the United Kingdom General Index of Retail Prices."
"If any change should be made to the coverage or the basic calculation of the [RPI] which, in the opinion of the Bank of England, constitutes a fundamental change in the Index which would be materially detrimental to the interests of the stock-holders Her Majesty's Treasury will publish a notice in the London Gazette immediately following the announcement to the relevant Government Department of the change, informing stockholders and offering them the right to require Her Majesty's Treasury to redeem their Stock in advance of the revised index becoming effective."
As at today, there are three issues of index-linked gilts whose prospectuses contain that wording, one of them maturing later this year, the others in 2024 and 2030. The value of those outstanding issues is over £30 billion.
"limited to issues such as the annual update of the basket and weights, improvements to data validation and quality assurance etc."
This was put in place in January 2013 and subsequently referred to as the "freezing" of RPI. At the same time the ONS developed a new index, RPIJ, which was based on RPI but used Jevons instead of Carli.
"are not consistent with internationally recognised best practices"
and (ii) the decision to freeze methods used to produce the RPI and only to contemplate routine changes. In November 2013 RPIJ was designated as a National Statistic.
"clear evidence that the current methodology is flawed…
headline RPI is not a robust measure of inflation…
[RPI is] a statistic that is no longer fit for purpose …
[RPI is] known to be statistically flawed
the use of Carli is statistically flawed and can result in an upwards bias in recorded inflation."
But it also identified further problems with RPI beyond the use of Carli, saying:
"it is not just the use of the Carli which is problematic…
there are further weaknesses in the RPI beyond those identified when its National Statistics status was revoked. For example [its treatment of] … insurance premiums and second-hand car sales … The RPI excludes certain households … The treatment of owner occupied housing costs in the RPI is also not the best available. Addressing any of these would arguably breach the National Statistician's commitment to not change the RPI."
Consequently, the Johnson Review recommended that the ONU should make it clear to the public that the RPI was not fit for purpose, saying:
"ONS and the [UKSA] should re-state its position that the RPI is a flawed statistical measure of inflation which should not be used for new purposes and whose use should be discontinued for all purposes unless there are contractual commitments at stake…
The [UKSA] and ONS should make it clear to users that the RPI is not a credible measure of consumer price change…
The [UKSA] and ONS should also be very clear in explaining that the RPI is not a credible measure of consumer price change. They should make it clear that the RPI is not fit for purpose and should not be used except where existing legal contracts, for example index-linked gilts, demand it."
He also recommended that RPIJ should be discontinued, as already referred to, because it suffered from the same flaws, other than the use of Carli, as the RPI itself.
"CPIH should become the ONS preferred measure of consumer inflation and the focal point of ONS commentary in due course…
Put simply, I believe that the RPI is not a good measure of inflation and does not realistically have the potential to become one...
I strongly discourage the use of the RPI as a measure of inflation as there are far superior alternatives."
He announced that RPIJ would no longer be published from March 2017 and that the reason it was not possible to stop producing and promulgating RPI entirely, despite its significant flaws, was that:
"RPI is still used for a number of legacy purposes and its production is mandated by legislation".
In November 2016 the ONS published a statement from Mr Pullinger as the National Statistician which again said that the ONS intended to make CPIH the preferred measure from March 2017 and described CPIH as "the most comprehensive available measure". It also repeated that the ONS would cease publication of RPIJ from March 2017, as although it addressed the Carli problem it shared RPI's other shortcomings and was not a good economic measure of consumer inflation. By March 2017 the ONS was describing CPIH (that is CPI with the addition of housing costs, which were excluded from CPI) as "our most comprehensive measure", and by 2017 as "our lead measure". Then in March 2018 the ONS published a further report, this time by Mr Pullinger himself, titled "The Shortcomings of the RPI as a Measure of Inflation", in which he repeated his views, saying, among other things:
"Overall the RPI is a very poor measure of general inflation at times greatly overestimating and at other times underestimating changes in prices…
Our position on the RPI is clear: we do not think it is a good measure of inflation and discourage its use…
RPI has a number of significant weaknesses. While the formula issue has been at the centre of the debate ... there are a number of other problems. Housing costs are produced using a poor proxy for depreciation … Overall we do not view the RPI as a good measure of inflation…
For the reasons set out in this document, RPI does not have the potential to become a good measure of inflation."
"It is untenable for an official statistic, that is used widely, to continue to be published with flaws that are admitted openly."
It further recommended that the UKSA and the Government should agree on a single measure of inflation for official use within the next five years and that:
"to prevent index shopping, in the interim, the Government should switch to CPI from RPI in all areas of present use that are not governed by private contracts."
"We are in a position where we and the ONS, who are the producers of the UK's consumer price statistics, are clear that the RPI is not a good measure of inflation…
[RPI's] production and the legislation around it sits uncomfortably with our legal obligation to promote and safeguard of the quality of official statistics…
…publication of the RPI should cease. Better alternatives exist."
And he suggested both replacing RPI in its entirety, which would mean primary legislation to repeal s. 21 SRSA 2007, and, in the alternative, changes to the methodology of RPI so as effectively to turn it into CPIH.
"I recognise that there are flaws in RPI and that maintaining public trust in official statistics is important, but RPI is used widely across the economy. UKSA's first proposal to end the publication of RPI will potentially be highly disruptive for the wide range of users of RPI. In turn this could be damaging to the economy and the public finances. As we have discussed, the next few months are a critical period for the UK as we ready ourselves to leave the EU on 31 October. Given the potential disruption for users of a change to RPI and the Government's focus on Brexit, I am not minded to promote legislation that would remove the requirement for UKSA to produce and publish RPI."
As to the second proposal to fix RPI by aligning its methodology with CPIH, Mr Javid said that he could see the statistical arguments for the proposal. He, however, recognised that his consent as Chancellor was required to change the calculation of RPI as proposed, because of its use as the reference index for some government debt. He continued:
"The requirement to seek my consent to certain changes to RPI expires in 2030. You have signalled that, while you cannot commit your successors, it is unlikely that the UKSA in 2030 will take a different view from your proposal to align RPI with CPIH. In coming to a decision I consider the integrity of the statistical system, the effect on the public finances and on the holders of specific index-linked gilts."
After indicating some of the considerations he had had in mind, he said he was:
"... unable to consent to the introduction of the change you have proposed any earlier than February 2025, based on the information I have available."
He then proposed a public consultation on whether the change should be made other than at 2030, and if so when between 2025 and 2030. That consultation was initially due to take place in the early part of this year but, I was told, has been put off, so that it is now due to take place in March or April of this year.
"... have consistently urged all – in Government and the private sector – to stop using it. However, the RPI is unique as we need consent from the Chancellor to make certain changes such as the one we have proposed"
The statement explained that the Chancellor had not agreed to stop RPI, and Sir David stated:
"We regret that no change will occur before 2025."
Principles of law
(1) In the judgment of Lord Mance at [23]:
"No one suggests or could suggest that the change meant that the 1997 deed was frustrated, so the question is how its language best operates in the fundamentally changed and entirely unforeseen circumstances in the light of the parties' original intentions and purposes: Bank of Credit and Commerce International SA v Ali [2002] 1 AC 251, Bromarin AB v IMD Investments Ltd [1999] STC 301, and Debenhams Retail plc v Sun Alliance and London Assurance Co Ltd [2006] 1 P & CR 123. The answer is evident. It operates best, and quite naturally, by ignoring in the 2009 accounts the unrealised gain on acquisition and treating the loss which exists apart from that as the relevant figure for the purposes of clause 2."
(2) Still in the judgment of Lord Mance at [31]:
"The Inner House itself failed properly to identify what the parties had in mind by "group profit [or loss] before taxation", at the times when the 1997 deed and its predecessors were executed. It did not appreciate the significance of the legal and accounting context in which the deeds were made, and it in effect assumed, contrary to all the indications and regardless of the consequences, that the contract must operate on an entirely literal basis by reference to a single line in whatever accounts may in future be produced in circumstances and under legal and accounting conventions entirely different from those in and for which it was conceived. As a result the Inner House thought that Lloyds Bank's construction would involve "rewriting" the deed, when in fact it reflects the proper approach, of giving effect to the parties' original intentions in the radically different legal and accounting context which existed by 2009."
(3) Then in the judgment of Lord Hope of Craighead DPSC at [34]:
"But I have been persuaded by Lord Mance JSC's judgment that these words must be read in the light of what a reasonable person would have taken them to mean, having regard to what was known in 1997 when the idea of introducing negative goodwill into the profit and loss account was unthinkable. Read in that context, the words do not have the weight that the dean's arguments would give to them. That would be to give them a meaning which no reasonable person would have dreamed of at that time. The words used are capable of meaning realised profit or loss before taxation, and of excluding elements which would not have been contemplated as having anything to do with the computation of profit or loss when the deed was executed. On that reading I am left in no doubt that the argument for Lloyds Bank, which accords with the landscape at the time when the words were written, must prevail over that of the Foundation."
(4) Finally, in the judgment of Lord Clarke of Stone-cum-Ebony JSC at [50]:
"In my opinion a critical aspect of the findings of fact made by the Lord Ordinary in this case, which was based on uncontradicted expert accountancy evidence, is that, when the deed was entered into, it was unthinkable that the relevant accounting rules would require unrealised profits to be treated as part of "group profit before taxation". The difference between the issue of construction in this case and that in many other cases which have come before the courts is that here the problem is how to construe the contract in the context of the changed circumstances which were unforeseeable when the contract was entered into."
(5) And at [52]:
"Here the parties did not make it clear what the position would be if new accounting rules were made which required unrealised profits to be taken into account. They did not think of such a possibility because it was unthinkable. In my opinion, if, as Mance LJ suggested, [that is, in another case] we promote the purposes and values which are expressed or implicit in the wording of the deed in order to reach an interpretation which applies the wording to the changed circumstances in the manner most consistent with them, the better construction of the deed is that advanced by Lloyds Bank."
Question 2
1. This Appendix gives a brief account of the differences between the Dutot, Carli and Jevons approaches to the calculation of elementary aggregates. Nothing turns on this in the present case but I include it because I have found the experts' explanation in this case of great assistance and it may be of assistance to anyone seeking to understand the underlying issues either in this case or in other cases.
2. The raw data for the construction of the indices consists of prices observed for a particular item, eg a large sliced white loaf, at different outlets or shops measured on a particular date, and then again on a subsequent date. The Dutot, Carli and Jevons methods are all means of converting this raw data into a single figure for the increase (or not) of the price of that item between the first date and the second. Dutot takes the average (that is mean) of prices for the same item at Date 1 and the average of prices at Date 2 and compares the two. If, for example, the average price at Date 1 is 100 and at Date 2 is 102 that is a 2% increase in prices. The evidence is that Dutot is a good measure of price inflation where prices of the same item in different shops tend to be relatively close together. In the RPI it is used for quite a number of the items, including in particular food.
3. Both Carli and Jevons, by contrast, first calculate the price ratio between the two dates for the same item at the same outlet. So if the price of the item in one shop goes from 100 to 102 that is a 2% rise or a ratio of 1.02; whereas in another shop it might not change at all (a ratio of 1), or it might go down from 100 to 98 (a ratio of 0.98), or go up from 100 to 103 (a ratio of 1.03).
4. One is then left with a collection of ratios for the same item at different shops. They need to be averaged. Carli uses an arithmetic mean to do so, calculated by adding together the ratios and dividing them by the number of ratios. Thus, if there are n ratios, a, b, c etc, the arithmetic mean is (a + b + c etc) / n. Jevons uses a geometric mean, calculated by multiplying the ratios together and taking the nth root, or in other words, the nth root (n√) of (a x b x c etc).
5. The experts are agreed that for any set of ratios Carli will always produce a figure which is equal to or higher than Jevons. They do not in fact set out the mathematics underlying this proposition but it is not difficult. A moment's reflection shows that if all the ratios are the same - if they are all 1.02 for example - then the two formulae will produce the same figure, as the arithmetic mean will be (1.02 x n) / n, or 1.02, and the geometric mean will be n√1.02n, which again is 1.02.
6. Where, however, the ratios are not all identical (as of course will almost always be the case), the arithmetic mean will always be higher. This can be demonstrated by taking the simple case of two ratios a and b. Since ex hypothesi they are not the same, one will be larger than the other. Assume that to be b. In that case b can be represented by (a + x). The arithmetic mean will now be:
(a + b) / 2 = (a + a + x) / 2 = (2a + x) / 2 = a + x/2.
The geometric mean will be:
√(a x b) = √(a x (a + x)) = √(a2 + ax).
7. To show that the arithmetic mean is necessarily larger than the geometric mean, all one needs to do is to take the square of each. The square of the geometric mean is:
a2 + ax.
But the square of the arithmetic mean is:
(a + x/2)2 = a2 + 2ax/2 + x2/4 = a2 + ax + x2/4.
In other words, the arithmetic mean will always be greater than the geometric mean by x2/4, and since x is a real number, x2/4 will always be positive. Hence the arithmetic mean will always exceed the geometric mean in the case of two numbers, and if this is true where are there are only two numbers, it is not difficult to show that it must also be true if 3, 4 or n numbers are used.
8. This fact (that Carli always returns a higher figure for the same dataset of prices than Jevons) is what produces the formula effect such that RPI is typically higher than CPI (although this is not always true due to other differences in computation especially in relation to housing costs, and there was a period shortly after the financial crash when RPI was noticeably lower than CPI).
9. The formula effect does not by itself demonstrate which is the preferable measure, but it can be shown that Carli, unlike Jevons, fails a number of tests or axioms that it is desirable for such a formula to have. It is not necessary to set them all out but I will give what is perhaps the most accessible example, adapted with gratitude from Dr Robinson's report.
10. Suppose the same item is on sale in shop 1 at Date 1 at £1 and in shop 2 at Date 1 at £1.50. But when measured again at Date 2 the price in shop 1 has risen to £1.50 and fallen to £1 in shop 2; and when measured yet again at Date 3, the prices have again reversed to £1 in shop 1 and £1.50 in shop 2. Intuitively there has overall been no inflation, either at the end of the first period at Date 2 or at the end of the second period at Date 3.
11. If aggregated using the Dutot or Jevons Formula, that is indeed the result obtained. Dutot averages the two prices at each date at £1.25 and then compares that average price at each date, and since that does not change at all it gives an answer of 1.
12. Jevons and Carli both calculate the ratio for each period. An item which goes from £1 to £1.50 yields a ratio of 150/100 or 1.5, and one which goes from £1.50 to £1 yields a ratio of 100/150 or 0.67. Jevons calculates the change from Date 1 to Date 2 as:
√(1.5 x 0.67) = √1 = 1
and the same is true for the ratio between Date 2 and Date 3. And if Jevons is used to calculate directly the change from Date 1 to Date 3 that too is 1.
13. But Carli calculates the change from Date 1 to Date 2 as:
(1.5 + 0.67) / 2 = 1.083
and does the same again for the ratio between Date 2 and Date 3. On the other hand, if Carli is used to measure directly the change from Date 1 to Date 3 there is no change, as the price of each item in each shop is exactly the same on both dates.
14. This illustrates how Carli fails what is called the price bouncing test, and also what are called the time reversal and circularity tests. According to Dr Robinson, most statisticians regard the failure of the Carli approach to pass the time reversal test as its biggest failing.
Note 1 Indeed, although this does not emerge clearly from the judgments in the Supreme Court, evidence that I was given in the claim brought by shareholders in Lloyds against its directors in relation to the acquisition of HBOS was to the effect that the so-called gain was in large part attributable to what were called fair value adjustments, both of HBOS’s assets and of its own liabilities, and that the latter would unwind as the liabilities matured: see the point as explained in the judgment of Norris J after trial, Sharp v Blank [2019] EWHC 3096 Ch at [568].